This prediction is solely only for study and research purposes. It is not intended for commercial or medical decision.
A “power” curve-fitting is employed on ‘ average growth rate’ of confirmed cases , which result in regression parameters as follows –> ln(y) = a*ln(x) + b
A python numpy-polyfit is employed to predict the number of person exiting the hospital. The model is –> Y = a . X^3 + b .X^2 + c.X + d
Based on the above figures, prediction of Covid’s Journey is calculated. It uses simple subtraction in order to obtain number of patients in the hospitals, and finaly to calculate the growth.
Based on the prediction of confirmed cases above, and by using a simple mathematics subtraction, it is possible to find number of daily cases ( difference of cases between days). A moving average is employed to present smoother line.